Awaiting summarization
Turkish Central Bank's official inflation forecast to exceed 45% by end-June?
Volume~$90
YES chance
DescriptionAmid the protracted political crisis in Turkey, caused by the cancelation of the results of the congress of the key opposition party, the Turkish lira has updated historic lows. According to Investing, analysts at the Turkish Central Bank are preparing an emergency revision of macroeconomic indicators. The rising cost of imported raw materials and panicky business sentiment are adding to inflationary pressures in the country. The bet is on whether the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will fix its year-end inflation forecast above the 45% mark in its updated June report.
ConditionsYes: if between June 16 and June 30, 2026, the CBRT Survey of Market Participants in its official monthly forecast survey (CBRT Survey of Market Participants) indicates expected year-end inflation ≥ 45.0%.No: if between June 16 and June 30, 2026, the CBRT Survey of Market Participants in its official monthly forecast survey indicates expected year-end inflation remains < 45.0%.
Timeline
OpenedJun 9, 2026, 9:57 PM
Closes
Jun 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 9, 2026, 9:57 PM
Closes
Jun 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
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NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis45 BPCX
Voted for NO
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User
Vol.
1
heySI1
heySI125 BPCX
2
MMTrader
MMTrader20 BPCX
Awaiting summarization
Turkish Central Bank's official inflation forecast to exceed 45% by end-June?
Volume~$90
DescriptionAmid the protracted political crisis in Turkey, caused by the cancelation of the results of the congress of the key opposition party, the Turkish lira has updated historic lows. According to Investing, analysts at the Turkish Central Bank are preparing an emergency revision of macroeconomic indicators. The rising cost of imported raw materials and panicky business sentiment are adding to inflationary pressures in the country. The bet is on whether the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will fix its year-end inflation forecast above the 45% mark in its updated June report.
ConditionsYes: if between June 16 and June 30, 2026, the CBRT Survey of Market Participants in its official monthly forecast survey (CBRT Survey of Market Participants) indicates expected year-end inflation ≥ 45.0%.No: if between June 16 and June 30, 2026, the CBRT Survey of Market Participants in its official monthly forecast survey indicates expected year-end inflation remains < 45.0%.
Event results
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