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Will the Bank of Russia revoke the licenses of three or more commercial banks in July 2026?
Volume~$14
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionIn June 2026, analysts at the Center for Market Analysis and Economic Policy (CMAP) announced the onset of a hidden banking crisis in Russia, noting that the share of non-performing assets remained above the critical threshold of 10%, and that banks were forced to spend up to 60% of their profits on servicing and provisioning these assets. Against the backdrop of rising toxic debt, the capital burden on small and medium-sized financial institutions is increasing sharply. The market will be watching to see whether the intensification of risks will lead to the Central Bank stepping up supervisory measures and revoking banking licenses from three or more commercial banks during July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 1 and July 31, 2026, the Bank of Russia officially announces the revocation of licenses for three or more credit institutions (banks).No: if, between July 1 and July 31, 2026, the number of banks that have had their licenses revoked by decision of the Central Bank is two or fewer.
Timeline
OpenedJun 15, 2026, 8:23 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 15, 2026, 8:23 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
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Active
Will the Bank of Russia revoke the licenses of three or more commercial banks in July 2026?
Volume~$14
DescriptionIn June 2026, analysts at the Center for Market Analysis and Economic Policy (CMAP) announced the onset of a hidden banking crisis in Russia, noting that the share of non-performing assets remained above the critical threshold of 10%, and that banks were forced to spend up to 60% of their profits on servicing and provisioning these assets. Against the backdrop of rising toxic debt, the capital burden on small and medium-sized financial institutions is increasing sharply. The market will be watching to see whether the intensification of risks will lead to the Central Bank stepping up supervisory measures and revoking banking licenses from three or more commercial banks during July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 1 and July 31, 2026, the Bank of Russia officially announces the revocation of licenses for three or more credit institutions (banks).No: if, between July 1 and July 31, 2026, the number of banks that have had their licenses revoked by decision of the Central Bank is two or fewer.